I. First up is Google. The search giant will start to see the inevitable decline as the King of search as more people use AI (e.g. ChatGPT) to find quick answers to questions rather than having to spend time sorting through a series of blue links. New uses for AI will continue as knowledge begins to emerge from a sea of information and we may see Microsoft's Bing leverage this opportunity. Google's record breaking search volume peak during the Qatar World Cup final will have marked it's all-time high never to be repeated.
II. Second is the remarkable rise of ChatGPT. The next iteration of the AI will be released this year and explode in popularity and use cases. Sites like Wikipedia (#7 most popular in the world) may no longer be necessary as the AI will write out answers for you in real-time. Universities will face an onslaught of AI written essays. Other industries such as law and medicine will also be impacted as the AI gains access to more and more information and can distill it into answering your question.
III. Third is Bitcoin. It will continue to be the only truly decentralized cryptocurrency and will hover around $20k throughout the year. No big jumps are expected until 2025 when large institutions / central banks may directly get involved and acquire some of the asset on their books. Other cryptocurrencies, while promising in their new technology and use cases, are swarmed by scammers thus the public at large will avoid them at all costs.
IV. Fourth is the war in Ukraine. It will continue for several more years as the industries which benefit from conflict continue to receive billions of dollars and are incentivized not to seek peace but rather a long drawn out war. Just look to the past to see a familiar pattern of U.S. involvement in overseas wars at the expense of taxpayers. New conflicts will arise driven by saber rattling nations such as Turkey and China before the year end.
(Published Jan 7, 2022)
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